The New York Times/Siena survey shows the Talarico Paxton Texas Senate poll tied at 47% among likely Texas voters. The result, reported by Fox News, highlights sharp demographic divides — notably among Hispanic voters, independents and women — that have moved a traditionally Republican state into competitive territory for the U.S. Senate race.
Talarico Paxton Texas Senate poll: quick take
The NYT/Siena poll records a 47%–47% split between James Talarico and Ken Paxton among likely voters. Key takeaways: Talarico benefits from strong Hispanic and independent support while Paxton remains competitive with core Republican voters despite character and extremism concerns documented in the survey.
Voter breakdown: race, gender and independents
The survey gives a clearer picture of which groups are tilting the contest.
- Hispanic voters: about 61% back Talarico (NYT/Siena survey).
- Independents: Talarico leads by roughly 27 points in the poll.
- Gender gap: an 18-point advantage for Talarico among women; Paxton leads men by a similar margin.
Those subgroup patterns matter because they suggest turnout and persuasion among Hispanics, suburban women and independents will determine whether Talarico’s advantage in those groups can offset Paxton’s strength with Republican base voters.
Paxton standing: scandals, character and electability
Paxton remains the Republican nominee with national GOP visibility, including earlier backing from former President Trump, but the poll flags voter concerns about character and extremism. Fewer than four in 10 respondents in the NYT/Siena survey said Paxton has the right kind of moral values or good character, and roughly half described him as too extreme.
The poll notes background context voters may consider, including Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by the Texas House and subsequent acquittal in the state Senate. Reporting has also highlighted personal and legal issues raised during the campaign; the NYT/Siena results indicate those perceptions may be weighing on some voters’ views even as partisan loyalty holds for others.
Fundraising and campaign messaging
Talarico entered the general-election phase with a substantial cash advantage: his campaign reported raising $27 million in the first quarter. That funding creates space for targeted advertising and voter outreach in key suburban and Hispanic communities.
Talarico’s messaging emphasizes economic pressure on families; his ad line that “too many Texans feel like they’re drowning” ties to pocketbook concerns the poll flagged as influential. Republicans are focusing on partisanship and past statements by Talarico to blunt those messages and consolidate conservative voters.
By the numbers (NYT/Siena survey)
- Talarico: 47% of likely voters.
- Paxton: 47% of likely voters.
- Hispanic voters: ≈61% for Talarico.
- Independents: Talarico leads by ≈27 points.
- Gender gap: 18-point swing favoring Talarico among women.
- Fundraising: Talarico raised $27 million in Q1.
- Perceptions: fewer than 40% say Paxton has good character; about 50% say he is too extreme.
Implications for Senate control and next steps
A 47%–47% tie in Texas matters for the Senate map because the state currently leans Republican in baseline partisan preference; the poll found Republican control of the Senate preferred by a larger share of respondents than Paxton’s 47%. If Texas becomes competitive, it narrows the path for the GOP to retain a majority and increases the importance of turnout, early voting, and persuadable independents.
Watch for changes in Hispanic and suburban turnout, independent movement, post-primary ad spending, and any further developments in Paxton’s legal and personal storylines that could shift perceptions. Small shifts in turnout or persuasion could decide a race this close.
What comes next
Expect both campaigns to intensify targeted outreach: Talarico to consolidate Hispanic and independent margins with economic messaging and localized field work; Paxton to mobilize Republican base voters with law-and-order and partisan appeals while leaning on national endorsements. Additional independent polls, early-voting returns, and ad-buy reports will be key checkpoints before Election Day.
Frequently asked questions
Who leads in the Talarico Paxton Texas Senate poll?
The New York Times/Siena survey finds James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied at about 47% among likely Texas voters.
How did Hispanic and independent voters break in the survey?
Hispanic voters favored Talarico by about 61%, and Talarico led independents by roughly 27 points in the NYT/Siena poll.
What are the implications for control of the US Senate?
If Texas becomes competitive or flips, it could affect the overall Senate map and narrow the path for Republicans to retain a majority. The poll indicates Paxton’s share is below the portion of respondents who say they prefer Republican control of the Senate, creating risk for the GOP if turnout and persuasion favor Democrats.
New York Times/Siena survey (as reported by Fox News). Original Fox News coverage: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/shock-poll-talarico-ties-paxton-texas-senate-race-threatening-gop-stronghold
