The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says shadow fleet drone incursions were linked to a wave of unexplained drone activity that disrupted civilian airports and probed military sites across Europe between Aug. 2024 and Feb. 2026. The think tank mapped 144 suspected incidents to vessel movements near sensitive locations in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Denmark.
This analysis covers Aug. 2024–Feb. 2026 and, the IISS argues, shows a repeated operational pattern: vessels associated with sanction‑evasion or older merchant shipping were repeatedly near incidents that temporarily closed or disrupted airports and penetrated military perimeters. The report frames the campaign as persistent testing of responses rather than isolated hobbyist flights.
What the IISS found
The IISS compiled open‑source tracking and incident reports and identifies 144 suspected drone incursions between Aug. 2024 and Feb. 2026. Its mapping shows clusters of events close to NATO states and sites tied to logistics support or nuclear deterrence. Countries the report lists explicitly include Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Denmark.
The report notes a rise in activity in late 2025, which it links to temporary airport closures and multiple military training disruptions. IISS analysts characterize the pattern as coordinated testing of defenses and public reaction, not random hobbyist behavior.
Shadow fleet drone incursions: How the ships fit the pattern
IISS analysts tracked movements of older merchant and sanction‑evading vessels—sometimes described as a “shadow fleet”—and found repeated proximity between those ships and reported drone events. The report names vessels including the Arctica and the Boracay as repeatedly operating near incident sites.
The timeline in the report places the Arctica along the Danish coast on Jan. 3, 2025, at roughly the same time about 20 small drones were observed over the port of Køge and then disappeared. It also notes that on Sept. 22, 2025, drone sightings prompted the closure of Copenhagen Airport while both the Arctica and the Boracay were operating in the nearby waters.
IISS and other analysts say ships at sea could serve as mobile launch platforms, bringing small craft closer to targets while complicating attribution. Many of the small drones cited in reports are difficult to detect on conventional radar, which analysts say can grant plausible deniability for any actors directing operations from maritime launch points.
Airport and base disruptions
The IISS links the pattern to multiple temporary closures and operational impacts at airports and military sites. The report highlights closures and delays across Germany, Spain and Denmark, with the Copenhagen Airport closure singled out as a major commercial disruption tied to local sightings.
Military implications are also raised. The IISS references incidents near sites where U.S. equipment or munitions are located and places those events in a broader pattern of airspace anomalies. Past U.S. reporting and Pentagon investigative activity are cited: for example, unauthorized aircraft were reported above Joint Base Langley‑Eustis for an extended period in December 2023, and drones near Barksdale Air Force Base were noted in U.S. coverage of similar incursions.
Expert view and intent assessment
Ret. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former U.S. Army commander in Europe, summarized his assessment to reporters: “There’s no doubt in my mind that the Russians are using the shadow fleet vessels as a platform to get different types of drones in closer to various European countries.” Hodges framed the activity as operational testing—probing defenses and creating anxiety without triggering open conflict.
Other analysts quoted in coverage see a mixture of espionage and psychological operations: testing response times, probing decision thresholds and shaping domestic political reactions. The IISS and outside experts assert that repetitive, low‑cost autonomous systems deployed from maritime platforms can impose outsized disruption relative to their cost.
Official responses and caveats
Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied accusations that Russian forces are conducting sabotage and surveillance activities tied to the reports; in coverage of the IISS findings he challenged critics to “Name even one proven fact.”
The IISS frames its conclusions as an assessment based on vessel tracking, incident timing and open‑source reporting. The institute and outside analysts note limits to attribution: absence of on‑scene forensic evidence, the challenge of detecting small drones on conventional radar, and the constraints of open‑source methods. Those caveats mean the links between specific ships and specific drone launches remain allegations rather than proven legal findings.
What comes next
IISS and allied officials say monitoring will continue and that NATO partners are discussing enhancements to air‑space sensing and counter‑drone capabilities. Policy discussions include layered defences, better maritime tracking integration with air‑space monitoring, and clearer rules for how to respond to incursions that fall below the threshold for kinetic military action. Civil aviation authorities are reviewing rapid assessment procedures to reduce unnecessary closures while protecting safety.
Timeline of key incidents
- Dec. 2023: Unauthorized aircraft reported above Joint Base Langley‑Eustis for days; Pentagon investigates.
- Jan. 3, 2025: IISS records the Arctica along the Danish coast as roughly 20 drones were observed over the port of Køge.
- Sept. 22, 2025: Drone sightings lead to Copenhagen Airport closure; Arctica and Boracay reported nearby, per IISS mapping.
- Late 2025: Peaks in sightings across Germany, Spain and Denmark, prompting multiple temporary airport closures.
- Aug. 2024–Feb. 2026: IISS documents 144 suspected incidents across several NATO states, per the report.
Source attribution: International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reporting and analysis; coverage via Fox News. See IISS (https://www.iiss.org) and related coverage — Fox News coverage.
Attribution note: The links the IISS draws between shadow fleet vessels and drone events are assessments based on open‑source tracking and reporting. Russian officials have publicly denied the accusations. The IISS report and other analysts explicitly present the connections as alleged and subject to the limits of available evidence.
