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The second wave of Corona virus has caused havoc all over India. Daily Corona cases are making new records every day. Experts are now trying to predict how long this second wave will continue and what will be the peak of the number of cases. According to the Times of India report, scientists have estimated on the basis of mathematical calculations that the second wave of corona may hit the peak between 11 to 15 May, and then the total active cases may be around 30-35 lakhs.
It is clear that the Daily Corona case will continue to set new records for about two-three weeks. According to the current trends, if the assumption is correct, then the second wave would be three times more deadly than the first wave. Peak was formed on 19 September 2020 during the first wave. At that time there were over 10 lakh active cases.
Policymakers will prepare on the basis of estimates
Now it is a challenge for policy makers to prepare well for this crisis, so that there are no problems of medical supplies and facility.
According to estimates, record cases in Delhi, Rajasthan, Haryana, Telangana may come up to 25-30 April. In Karnataka and West Bengal, 1-5 mA peak may occur, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are likely to have a peak by 6-10 May.
For the state of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, it is estimated that they have already reached the peak phase. At the same time, a peak can occur in Bihar by around 25 April.
The cases of Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Gujarat are also being analyzed. At present, scientists are waiting for its results, it will take some more time to reach their estimates.
Manindra Agarwal of IIT Kanpur, who works on estimates, says that ‘we have to understand that there are two types of peak. One is the daily number of cases and the other is the active case.
It was earlier estimated that early peak
Earlier, under this model, on April 1, it was estimated that the peak of the active case could be made between April 15-20 and then the active could be around 1 million. But later this estimate changed according to the circumstances.
Regarding such a big gap in the estimate, Manindra Agarwal says that –
Corona virus infection has become dangerous day by day. Since then, we have changed our fixed parameters. Before this our model of inference was not perfect. States continue to release new data, due to which the value of our estimated model varies. It is becoming very difficult to find the right value. ”
